Forensic data analysis. CIBAK HOCKEY IQ. Confession Series.
A forensic analysis of the salary cap, which will jump by 25.5 million over three seasons; a single contract from Košice worth 60.8 million; and a projection that gives the father of a 16-year-old hockey player an answer in dollars - not in hope.
Author: Martin Cibák - 2004 Stanley Cup Champion (Tampa Bay Lightning), CIBAK HOCKEY IQ co-founder and Chief Hockey Officer.
Date: June 17, 2026.
Related to the article: The father of a hockey player who once stopped me in Liptov.
A number that no one uses in the Slovak locker room
When I lifted the Stanley Cup in Tampa in 2004, there was no salary cap. The NHL did not introduce it until the following season, in 2005-06, at $39 million per team. Since then, it has gone through the 2012-13 lockout, the pandemic "flat cap" period of 2019-2022 (three seasons stuck at 81.5 million), and a slow recovery between 2022 and 2024 (82.5 -> 83.5 million). Starting with the 2024-25 season, the curve has shifted.
The three numbers driving the league today: 2025-26 = 95.5 million, 2026-27 = 104 million, 2027-28 = 113.5 million. The NHL and NHLPA announced these figures jointly in May 2025 - for three seasons in advance all at once, for the first time in history. The jump between 2025-26 and 2027-28 is 18 million.
And I have one question: does the father of a 16-year-old hockey player - who started his car at 5 a.m. this morning to drive his son to practice - know about this?
A cap explosion is not an opinion. It is an announcement from May 2025 - and the father in Liptov probably has not even heard of it yet.
Cap timeline - five seasons of stagnation, three seasons of explosion
Raw data and year-over-year growth calculations - a rough measure of how quickly the NHL is rebounding economically after the pandemic.
| Season | Cap | Year-over-year growth | % YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | $81.5M | - | - |
| 2020-21 | $81.5M | $0 | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | $81.5M | $0 | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | $82.5M | +$1.0M | +1.2% |
| 2023-24 | $83.5M | +$1.0M | +1.2% |
| 2024-25 | $88.0M | +$4.5M | +5.4% |
| 2025-26 | $95.5M | +$7.5M | +8.5% |
| 2026-27 | $104.0M | +$8.5M | +8.9% |
| 2027-28 | $113.5M | +$9.5M | +9.1% |
Sources: NHL/NHLPA payroll range announcement (May 2025); The Hockey News; Wikipedia / CapWages.
Five seasons of near-zero growth, followed by three seasons with an average growth rate of +8.8%. That is not inflation. It is a compression of NHL revenue, which is projected to reach around $6.8 billion in the 2024-25 season.
The May 2025 announcement went a step further - in addition to the three-year horizon, the NHL and NHLPA also released a projection for 2028-29 in the amount of $121 million. For the first time in history, GMs can structure contracts against a known three-year curve.
Slafkovský and McDavid - Two Sides of the Same Equation
The cap is the ceiling under which the salaries of all players on a team must fit. As the cap rises, the value of each player in the system changes.
A Slovak example: Juraj Slafkovský. On July 2, 2024, he signed an extension with the Montreal Canadiens for 8 years x $7.6 million AAV = $60.8 million guaranteed (valid from 2025-26 through 2032-33). He was twenty years old at the time. The No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft.
Context: If he had signed the same contract during the pandemic season of 2021-22 with a cap of 81.5 million, the AAV would have accounted for 9.33% of the cap. In 2027-28, with a cap of 113.5 million, it would be just 6.70%. Montreal will have room to sign other players around him - without taking a single dollar away from Slafkovský.
At the top of the pyramid, the math is, paradoxically, the opposite. Connor McDavid signed an extension with Edmonton on October 6, 2025 - for just 2 years x $25 million = $12.5 million AAV. That is exactly the same average as his original 2017 contract, signed under a $75 million cap. Under the 2017-18 cap, that was 16.67% of the cap. Under the $104 million cap in 2026-27, it will be just 12.02%. McDavid himself has publicly stated that he wanted a below-market figure so the team would have the flexibility to build a competitive roster. He will become a UFA in the summer of 2028.
When a superstar freezes his salary cap hit, the money flows to supporting players - and that is the space where a Slovak player drafted between the 15th and 60th picks can fit in. Table of the three current Slovak contracts in the NHL as of June 4, 2026:
| Player (team) | Length x AAV | Valid Through | % of 2025-26 cap | % of 2027-28 cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juraj Slafkovský (MTL) | 8 years x $7.60M | 2025-26 -> 2032-33 | 7.96% | 6.70% |
| Erik Černák (TBL) | 8 years x $5.20M | 2023-24 -> 2030-31 | 5.45% | 4.58% |
| Martin Fehérváry (WSH) | 7 years x $6.00M (ext.) | 2026-27 -> 2032-33 | 5.77%* | 5.29% |
Sources: NHL.com; CapWages; ESPN. Fehérváry signed a seven-year extension in July 2025 through 2032-33 for 6.0 million per year; his current three-year contract at 2.675 million expires after the 2025-26 season, and the new one begins in 2026-27.
Slafkovský has 60.8 million guaranteed. McDavid voluntarily left 12.5 million in AAV. Cap escalation has two sides - and both work in favor of the young Slovak.
Off-cap - money the cap does not show
A fact that most commentators ignore. The salary cap applies exclusively to player salaries. Budgets for scouting, analytics, video, sports science, development, and coaches are off-cap. No cap.
ESPN highlighted this in October 2022 with the headline: "There is no salary cap on hockey operations." Wyshynski and Kaplan showed how teams quietly rebuilt their entire hockey operations departments while fans were focused only on the cap hits of the top lines.
This is evident in the case of the Anaheim Ducks. When Pat Verbeek took over as GM of the Ducks on February 3, 2022, he joined an organization with minimal analytical resources. During his tenure, he significantly expanded the department - adding video scouting, data science, and R&D, and establishing a new performance department focused on sports science. In Detroit as an assistant GM and in Tampa during his playing career, he saw what data does for player development. In Anaheim, he had a budget that was not constrained by the salary cap.
It is the same story across the entire NHL. Sportlogiq, which was acquired by the Teamworks platform on January 15, 2026, served 97% of NHL teams - 31 out of 32 - prior to the acquisition, according to the announcement. The NHL Edge system, featuring a chip in the puck and cameras in each of the 32 arenas, has been in operation since the 2021-22 season.
Teams that invest in analytics find players that others overlook. As the salary cap rises, clubs are also investing more in scouting smaller markets. Central Europe is one such market.
Off-cap budgets have no ceiling. Verbeek built the performance department from scratch - and 31 of the 32 NHL teams now pay Sportlogiq.
ELC - the first contract your son will one day sign
Every player drafted into the NHL signs an Entry-Level Contract - a three-year deal with a capped salary structure. The MOU for the new CBA (effective starting in 2026-27) raises these figures for the 2026 draft class.
| ELC Components | 2026+ Draft | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Maximum base salary | $1,000,000 | Increase from $925K |
| Schedule A bonuses | up to $1,000,000 | Increase from $850K |
| Schedule B bonuses | to $2.0-2.5M | Depends on draft class |
| Signing bonus | Variable | Within the ELC cap |
Sources: CapWages - MOU 2025 [15]; PuckPedia [16].
Schedule B - that extra 2 million - is awarded only to players who exceed specific performance thresholds: goals, assists, ice time, All-Rookie. Money for performance, not for potential. If your son makes his NHL debut in the 2028-29 season, his ELC will not count against the 81.5-million cap as it did during the pandemic. It will count against the cap above 113.5 million - and Schedule B bonuses will take up less than one percent of the cap.
The Second Contract - Where Careers Are Made or Broken
The ELC lasts three years. After that comes the second contract - and this is where the financing of the entire career is decided. After the ELC, the player becomes a Restricted Free Agent; the team that drafted him has the right of first refusal.
Slafkovský's trajectory is a textbook example. An ELC from 2022 to 2025, followed by an eight-year extension at an AAV of 7.6 million. If he had signed that same contract three seasons earlier under a $83.5 million cap, the AAV would have been between $5 million and $6 million. The cap allowed for a 30 to 35 percent increase - without a single additional goal.
The new CBA, effective starting in 2026-27, changes the structure of second contracts. Four rules for parents in Liptov:
- Maximum length: 7 years for an extension with the player's current team; 6 years for a UFA signing.
- Signing bonuses: a maximum of 60% of the total contract value.
- Deferred payments: prohibited in new contracts.
- Year-over-year difference: maximum of 20% of the first year's salary.
For a 16-year-old and his family, this is an advantage - you know exactly what kind of contract you can expect in a few years. Agents have less room to be vague.
A 16-year-old Slovak in 2028 - projection in dollars
A specific scenario. The year is 2028. A Slovak player, currently 16 years old, is drafted in the first or second round. A projection of his first decade, assuming the salary cap continues to grow at the same rate:
| Year | Age | Status | Income (projection) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 | 18 | Drafted, signed to an ELC | Signing bonus + base salary |
| 2028-29 | 18-19 | ELC, Year 1 | $1M base + bonuses up to $3M |
| 2029-30 | 19-20 | ELC, Year 2 | $1M base + bonuses up to $3M |
| 2030-31 | 20-21 | ELC, Year 3 | $1M base + bonuses up to $3M |
| 2031-32 | 21-22 | RFA - second contract | $5-9M AAV |
| 2035-36 | 25-26 | UFA or extension | $8-12M+ AAV |
Analytical estimate by CIBAK HOCKEY IQ based on NHL/NHLPA payroll ranges for 2025-28 and sustained year-over-year growth of 8-10 million. There is no official cap yet for 2031-32; I personally estimate the cap to be over 130 million dollars.
If the same player had followed the same path five years ago - the 2023 draft, with a cap of 83.5 million - his second contract would have fallen in the 3.5 to 6 million AAV range. The difference? +30 to +40% for the same performance. Not because he is better. Simply because the cap is higher.
A 16-year-old in 2028 will not get paid more because he skates better. He will get paid more because the NHL salary cap is rising beneath him.
Five steps a father must take this year
The salary cap is rising. There is money in the NHL. The question is whether a Slovak player will get his share of it. Five steps for parents of 16-year-olds:
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Data, not just ice time. Your son needs an analytical profile - tracking data, video, performance metrics, biomechanics. Not because an agent wants it. Because each of the 32 NHL clubs investing in hockey operations outside the cap wants it.
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International exposure, backed by a roster. At the 2026 U18 World Championship in Trenčín, Slovakia had 10 of 25 players playing for foreign clubs (40%) - four in Finland (Lukko, Tappara, SaiPa), two in Canada (QMJHL Drummondville + AJHL Brooks), two in the U.S. (USHL Fargo and Lincoln), and two in the Czech Republic (Kometa Brno and Pardubice). This is the distribution of the infrastructure that you need to understand before your son is offered his first academy spot.
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ELC literacy. The family must understand the structure of the Entry-Level Contract - base salary, signing bonus, Schedule A, and Schedule B. This is not a topic for the day of signing. It is a topic for a 16-year-old today.
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The Right Agent at the Right Time. An agent with an NHL network is not a luxury - it is a tool. The best agents today collaborate with the clubs' analytics teams. Choose one who will show you their own data, not just a list of past clients.
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Think long-term. The ELC is not the goal. It is the gateway to the second contract - and that one determines the next decade. Slafkovský's 60.8 million did not start in Montreal. It started back when he was a teenager and someone around him knew where the cap was headed.
The Final Word - From His Father in Liptov to a Contract in Toronto
Back in Tampa in 2004, I did not know what the salary cap was. It came a season later, and my entire generation only understood it in hindsight, the hard way. Today I know that the cap is not just a number for general managers and agents. It is an economic framework that determines how much your hockey is worth in dollars, not in praise from the stands.
And I will be honest about this, because I know it from the inside. When the league introduced the cap, general managers started thinking differently. Suddenly, every dollar counted, and every spot on the roster had to be justified economically, not just by performance on the ice. At the time, I was a typical fourth-line player - a workhorse. I wanted to continue playing in the NHL and felt I had what it took.
But when the offers came in, not a single one was a one-way contract. I had about twenty-four offers for two-way contracts on the table and not a single one-way contract. Clubs prioritized funding and protecting their top six forwards and key players on the roster. That is where the money went; that is where the security lay. For a player in my role, the opportunities available were measured differently.
In 2006, I decided to return to Europe. At the time, I did not fully understand that decision. I took it personally, emotionally, as if the league had said "no" specifically to me. It took years for me to realize that was not the case.
The salary cap was not created to work against the players. It was created to protect the league's economy and the long-term stability of the clubs. The same system that once closed a door in my face is now opening a door for a young Slovak player drafted between the 15th and 60th picks. That is not an injustice. It is math. And math can be understood before it hurts.
That is why I am writing to parents, not scouts. A father who once stopped me near the church in Liptovský Mikuláš asked, "Can you get it back?" The financial version of my answer goes like this: understanding the NHL's economy today is just as important as understanding hockey itself. Without the former, the latter will not reach its full potential.
104 million in 2026-27. 113.5 million in 2027-28. 121 million in 2028-29. And if the league keeps up this pace, the salary cap for 2031-32 will exceed 130 million. That is the horizon every 16-year-old hockey player in Slovakia is stepping into today. Not after draft week in Toronto. Not after their first NHL game. Today.
When I look at the numbers 104, 113.5, and 121 million dollars today, I do not just see NHL budgets. I see decisions that once influenced my career and that could influence your son's career tomorrow.
Martin Cibák
2004 Stanley Cup Champion (Tampa Bay Lightning)
CIBAK HOCKEY IQ - co-founder & Chief Hockey Officer
Sources and Verification
Every numerical and factual piece of information in the text has been independently verified from at least three sources. Salary figures, the salary cap, ELC structures, and CBA rules are summarized as of June 4, 2026.
- Wikipedia - NHL salary cap (historical overview, 2012-13 lockout, 2019-2022 "flat cap"). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_salary_cap (accessed June 4, 2026)
- NHL & NHLPA - Team Payroll Ranges for the Next 3 Seasons (May 2025: $95.5M / $104M / $113.5M; projection for 2028-29 $121M). https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-nhlpa-announce-team-payroll-ranges-for-next-3-seasons (accessed June 4, 2026)
- The Hockey News - NHL maximum player salary of $20M+ in 2026-27 (salary cap $104M / $113.5M). https://thehockeynews.com/news/latest-news/nhls-maximum-allowed-player-salary-surpasses-20-million-in-2026-27 (accessed June 4, 2026)
- PuckProse - NHL revenue 2024-25 (revenue around $6.8 billion). https://puckprose.com/nhl-sees-revenue-increase-significantly-across-the-board-01kmkbszmc9k (accessed June 4, 2026)
- NHL.com - Slafkovsky signs 8-year, $60.8M extension (signed July 2, 2024; AAV $7.6M; 2025-26 -> 2032-33). https://www.nhl.com/news/juraj-slafkovsky-signs-8-year-contract-with-montreal-canadiens (accessed June 4, 2026)
- NHL.com - Canadiens select Juraj Slafkovsky first overall in the 2022 NHL Draft. https://www.nhl.com/news/canadiens-pick-juraj-slafkovsky-first-in-2022-nhl-draft-334848084 (accessed June 4, 2026)
- NHL.com - Oilers sign McDavid to a two-year extension (October 6, 2025; 2 years x $25M = $12.5M AAV; UFA 2028). https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-oilers-sign-mcdavid-to-two-year-extension (accessed June 4, 2026)
- PuckPedia - McDavid 8-year, $100M Deal with Oilers (July 2017; cap $75M; 16.67%). https://puckpedia.com/signing/4114 (accessed June 4, 2026)
- CapWages - Erik Cernak (8 years x $5.2M; 2023-24 -> 2030-31). https://capwages.com/players/erik-cernak (accessed June 4, 2026)
- The Hockey Writers - Capitals sign Fehervary to 7-year extension (July 2025; $6.0M AAV starting in 2026-27). https://thehockeywriters.com/capitals-sign-martin-fehervary-to-7-year-contract-extension/ (accessed June 4, 2026)
- ESPN (Wyshynski/Kaplan, October 2022) - "There is no salary cap on hockey operations." https://espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/34710295/nhl-secret-race-competitive-advantage (accessed June 4, 2026)
- NHL.com / Anaheim Ducks - Pat Verbeek bio (GM since February 3, 2022; expansion of analytics and performance department). https://www.nhl.com/ducks/info/pat-verbeek (accessed June 4, 2026)
- Teamworks - Teamworks Acquires Sportlogiq (January 15, 2026; 97% of NHL teams = 31/32). https://teamworks.com/blog/teamworks-acquires-sportlogiq/ (accessed June 4, 2026)
- NHL.com - NHL EDGE launches website for puck and player tracking data (starting in 2021-22). https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-edge-launches-website-for-puck-and-player-tracking-data (accessed June 4, 2026)
- CapWages - NHL CBA 2026 MOU (max ELC base $1M; max term 7/6; signing bonus 60%; deferred bonuses prohibited; 20% year-over-year difference). https://capwages.com/articles/2025-memorandum-of-understanding (accessed June 4, 2026)
- PuckPedia - Breakdown of Entry-Level Contract amounts. https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/answers/elc-contract-amounts (accessed June 4, 2026)
- EliteProspects - Slovakia U18 roster, 2026 U18 World Championship (10/25 playing abroad: 4 FIN, 2 CAN, 2 USA, 2 CZ). https://www.eliteprospects.com/team/1633/slovakia-u18 (accessed June 4, 2026)
CIBAK HOCKEY IQ · Confession Series · Posted June 17, 2026.